Pakistan's Lightning Response Establishes New Balance of Power.

Pakistan's Lightning Response Establishes New Balance of Power.

Pakistan, May 16 -- In modern warfare, things move at a lightning speed. Attacks and counter attacks take place instantly and cause so huge damages that the situation transforms decisively in a spurt of movement. If there had previously been any doubts about the fickleness of modern warfare or conflict, they were assertively cleared on 10 May. Over a course of a few hours, Pakistan's categorical response to the aggression that India committed in the dead of the night changed the dynamics of the war between the two countries, enhanced the diplomatic and political engagement at international level, and above all boosted the morale of the nation. It awakened the international community from its deep slumber, forcing US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to intervene and bring an end to hostilities between the two nuclear armed neighbors. The conflict eventually came to a halt when US President Donald Trump, in a post on X, announced a ceasefire between the two countries. He said: "After a long night of talks mediated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a full and immediate ceasefire. Congratulations to both countries on using common sense and great intelligence."

The US-mediated ceasefire that came into effect on 10 May and brought an end to conflict between India and Pakistan, was no less than a surprise. This was particularly so as the United States had been reluctant to accept mediation for any truce between the two countries. The reported "intelligence report" that provoked the US leadership to come into action and negotiate a ceasefire between the two countries will perhaps remain a mystery. The Indian missile attack on Noor Khan airbase, followed by media reports of a possible National Command Authority meeting by Pakistan in the morning of 10 May, must have been a nightmare for the international community. Though Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar and Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif later denied that any such meeting has been on the cards, the message had gone across the world that intervention was necessary to avert a catastrophe. The move that surprised everyone was the speed with which Pakistan repulsed the attack with the help of a barrage of missiles that hit several military installations in India. Its aircraft were ruling the sky and successfully neutralized the aggression, which forced the enemy to accept the ceasefire to avert further losses.

There has been a general appreciation of the US-brokered ceasefire in Pakistan, which averted the possibility of a full-scale catastrophic war between the nuclear-armed archrivals. Pakistan maintained a clear position from the outset that it wanted peace and would not initiate the war.

The Indian position was, however, different. It underestimated Pakistan's military prowess and launched attacks in several cities in Pakistan out of mere arrogance and overconfidence. The US-brokered ceasefire is, therefore, being viewed in India with a pinch of salt. As it was hard to miscalculate the potential devastation of any such engagement, the vexed question is why Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi decided in the first place to tread the dreadful path in the aftermath of 22 April Pahalgam attack. Why did India blame Pakistan for the attack and reject Pakistan's offer to hold a neutral investigation of the gruesome incident? The disappointment of the Indian nation is quite understandable if it all had to end up in a ceasefire brokered by a third country.

Regardless of what prompted the United States to intervene and what forced the two countries to accept the ceasefire, it was a pleasant outcome in line with the aspirations of a large number of people who love to see peace in the two countries. The renewed interest of the international community to establish peace in South Asia is welcome. The scheduled 12 May meeting between DGMOs of the two countries will set the tone for future engagement between Pakistan and India.

What makes all this promising is how Pakistan adopted a multi-pronged strategy to deal with the threat and how all state institutions and the nation rose up to the challenge. As the United States, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, China, Turkey and several other states launched a diplomatic initiative, Pakistan raised the bar of its military response to Indian provocations. Over a course of a few hours, events took place at such a brisk pace that they had changed the power equation between the two countries before the US-brokered ceasefire came into effect in the afternoon of 10 May.

India spends $77 billion annually on its defense compared to Pakistan's $7 billion. The balance of power had obviously been tilted toward India before a barrage of Pakistani missiles, drones, and fighter jets effectively targeted Indian military installations and shooting down of five Indian fighter jets, including French-made couple of Rafale jets and 77 Israeli-made drones. A flurry of attacks on several Indian airbases helped establish Pakistan's air superiority against India. Pakistan's response was brisk and surprising, and established a new balance of power in the region.

The military engagement has been no less than a nightmare for Indian political and military leadership, which dreamt of carving out a status of a regional superpower in the region. On the contrary, the conflict has exposed the myth of India's military prowess and reinforced China's well-deserved position as the regional superpower. The combination of Chinese technological superiority and Pakistan military's skillfulness make the two countries natural allies and guardians of peace in the region. The role of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE, and Azerbaijan in the conflict is the harbinger of a much larger military and economic alliance in the region.

In the fast-changing world order, any regional alliance will bring about stability and security in the peace-starved area. Pakistan's proactive diplomatic push is encouraging and is likely to end its global isolation to a great extent. The ability to effectively defend itself is the podium that allows Pakistan to speak out its vision for the region. The domestic political harmony resulting from a renewed confidence and buoyancy will amplify Pakistan's voice at regional and international level. It is important that national leadership protects and fosters this mood and must not lower its guards against any misadventure that India might undertake out of desperation.

Asad J. Rizvi ..