How big is NATO’s military force compared to Russia’s active-duty troops?

 

How big is NATO’s military force compared to Russia’s active-duty troops?

And could NATO win a war without the US?

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is the most powerful defensive alliance in the world. NATO includes 32 member states that can combine their military forces in a time of need. But just how many troops can NATO bring to bear against its enemies?

Why NATO was created.

NATO was originally envisioned as an organization designed to protect Western Europe from the threat of invasion posed by the Soviet Union. After the Soviet Union’s fall, NATO didn’t go away but rather expanded with a mandate to protect peace on the European continent. 

What NATO does now.

Russia became the primary focus of NATO’s attention and in the context of Moscow’s ongoing invasion of its neighbor Ukraine, the defensive alliance seems more relevant than ever. However, how could NATO stack up against Russia in a fight on the ground?

Active military personnel.

It should be no surprise that the active military personnel on NATO’s combined forces outweigh Russia’s active-duty personnel, which stand at 1.5 million according to data gathered by Visual Capitalist. Let’s take a look at how NATO's active-duty military personnel size compares.

NATO smallest member.

Luxembourg is the smallest country in NATO and also has the smallest number of active-duty military personnel at 1,000. On the other end of the spectrum, The United States is one of the largest countries in NATO and has the largest number of active-duty troops.

NATO’s largest member.

With 1.3 million people under active arms, the United States represents 39% of NATO’s manpower while the remaining 31 member states provide 61% with 2.11 million active-duty personnel. This far exceeds what Russia could bring to bear in a ground war.

 

Can NATO defend Europe without the US?

The question of NATO’s ability to defend Europe against Russia is a far more pressing one than in previous years since Donald Trump’s return to power. Reports have hinted that the second Trump administration is planning to reduce its footprint in Europe. 

Pulling US troops from Europe.

In late January 2025, Stars and Stripes reported the leading Italian news agency ANSA revealed Trump wanted to withdraw 20,000 US troops from Europe and was working on plans to have Washington’s European allies pay for the military personnel that remained on the continent. 

Trump's proposed this before.

There was no comment from the Pentagon at the time, but Stars and Stripes noted that Trump has “long advocated for a smaller force in Europe," especially in Germany, during his first term in office. Trump proposed withdrawing or relocating 12,000 troops from Germany. 

Growing policy changes.

Defense News also reported on March 20th that European defense officials have talked about growing policy changes from their American counterparts that indicate America is shifting its forces and focus from Europe to the Asian Pacific. 

What some officials think.

“It feels like the task is not to promote European allies and NATO but to ensure a U.S. withdrawal with minimum fuss,” an anonymous European defense official stated according to Defense Express. This leaves one question: Can NATO defend Europe without the US?

NATO without America vs. Russia.

If Russia were to launch an attack on a European nation that was also a NATO member state, and if the United States didn’t come to that nation's aid in the alliance’s Article 5 protocol, that nation could still likely rely on assistance from its other NATO allies. 

NATO without the US still wins.

Russia’s 1.5 million active military force would be pitted against 2.11 million NATO ally troops. However, a recent report about Europe's ability to protect itself without the US indicated that any force meant to defend Europe that didn't include the US would require a substantial amount of equipment to go toe-to-toe with Russian forces. 

Europe would need more troops.

According to the report—which was a joint effort by the Bruegel think tank and the Kiel Institute—a European force without the United States would require an additional 300,000 servicemen, which Euronews noted was roughly 50 brigades. It's important to note 30 of NATO's members are European states and the other two are Canada and the United States. 

Weapons to deter Russia.

In order to deter a Russian breakthrough, the hypothetical NATO force without the US, which would really just be a European force plus Canada, NATO would need at least 1,400 tanks, 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles, and 700 artillery pieces, as well as a million 155mm artillery shells for the first three months of combat. 

Drones are also important.

Drone production would need to be scaled up to 2,000 long-range units per month to match Russian output. "The Russians, in the past two years, have put their economy and their society largely on a war footing,” report co-author Alexandr Burilkov noted. 

Let’s hope the scenario never plays out.

Whether or not Russia will launch an attack on Europe someday is still unknown, but it is a scenario that intelligence groups are increasingly warning could be a possibility. It is also unclear if the US would come to Europe’s aid, though let’s hope the world never has to find out. 

( Zeeshan Afzal ) ( ذیشان افضل )