JD Vance chances of beating leading Democratic candidates in 2028—Poll

 

JD Vance chances of beating leading Democratic candidates in 2028—Poll,

Vice President JD Vance held a narrow lead over three potential Democratic presidential candidates who have led recent surveys of the 2028 primary, according to a new Emerson College poll released Friday.

Newsweek reached out to Vance's office and each of the candidates for comment via email

Why It Matters

Vance, President Donald Trump's second-in-command, is viewed as a potential Republican front-runner in the 2028 election, when Democrats will aim to win back control of the White House.

Although the Democratic primary is still years away, prospective candidates are already making early moves, such as fundraising, building national name recognition, and traveling to key primary states to meet with voters.

Early polling can provide insights into how Americans view potential candidates ahead of the election, although surveys aren't always predictive this far in advance.

What To Know,

The Emerson College poll found that Vance held a single-digit lead over three potential candidates: former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, California Governor Gavin Newsom, and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

The poll surveyed 1,400 U.S. voters from July 21 to July 22, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

Of those three, Buttigieg was held to the tightest margin, with 44 percent backing Vance for president and 43 percent supporting Buttigieg. Buttigieg fueled speculation that he could run for president earlier this year when he announced he would opt out of running statewide in Michigan, where he has lived since his time in President Joe Biden's administration.

Newsom, who traveled to early-voting primary state South Carolina this summer, received 42 percent support against Vance's 45 percent, according to the poll.

Meanwhile, Ocasio-Cortez, who is a favorite of many progressives, received 41 percent to Vance's 44 percent. Ocasio-Cortez hasn't signaled she plans to run for president, and is also speculated to be a potential Senate candidate against incumbent New York Democrat Chuck Schumer.

It notably did not ask about former Vice President Kamala Harris, who has not said whether she plans to run again. She is also reportedly considering a bid for California governor.

The poll also found that 47 percent of respondents disapproved of Trump's job performance, while 46 percent approve of him so far.

An Overton Insights poll released last month showed that Harris would have a slight lead over Vance, with 45 percent of respondents backing her and 42 percent supporting Vance. That poll surveyed 1,200 registered voters from June 23 to June 26, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.77 percentage points.

What People Are Saying,

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, wrote in the polling memo: "A key takeaway from the ballot tests is that about 13% of the electorate remains persuadable, while the other 87% have already settled on a party preference."

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, in May: "Democrats do not have the best brand around here or in a lot of places. There's a lot of reasons for that. Some fair, and some not fair."

California Governor Gavin Newsom told The Wall Street Journal in June: "I'm not thinking about running, but it's a path that I could see unfold."

What Happens Next,

The 2028 presidential race will continue to unfold over the coming years. Typically, candidates do not announce plans to run until after the midterms, which will be held next November. But speculation about who may be gearing up for a presidential run is sure to continue.